A prediction based on the evidence

So the election results are in and the only possible coalition seems to be the SNP, the Lib Dems and the Greens, and that gives a majority of two if you toss in Margo McDonald. (We’ll discount the Tories because, well, they’re the Tories and in reality they probably won’t want to help either Labour or the SNP.) The LDs have already rejected a SNP coalition, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they turned turtle after a bunch of concessions; but even then, the Greens might be a very hard act to keep happy. So what are the rules here?

Scotland Act 1998 – Section (3): Extraordinary general elections

(1) The Presiding Officer shall propose a day for the holding of a poll if-

(a) the Parliament resolves that it should be dissolved and, if the resolution is passed on a division, the number of members voting in favour of it is not less than two-thirds of the total number of seats for members of the Parliament, or

(b) any period during which the Parliament is required under section 46 to nominate one of its members for appointment as First Minister ends without such a nomination being made.

Hmm. Looking at Section 46, we find

Scotland Act 1998 – Section (46): Choice of the First Minister

(3) The period allowed is the period of 28 days which begins with the day on which the event in question occurs; but-

(a) if another of those events occurs within the period allowed, that period shall be extended (subject to paragraph (b)) so that it ends with the period of 28 days beginning with the day on which that other event occurred, and

(b) the period shall end if the Parliament passes a resolution under section 3(1)(a) or when Her Majesty appoints a person as First Minister.

So this means that if no-one can get their act together by May 31st, we’re having the election all over again. And since this is Scottish politics we’re talking about, I think that’s actually quite likely unless, somehow, all goes well in the negotiations.

And combining this with the voting screwups, I think it’s probably the least worst option too, but what do I know?